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Within-cell vertical and horizontal structure is depicted by frequency distributions of tree density in height classes and therefore light attenuation.

Spatiotemporal Processes of Plant Phenology: Simulation and Prediction

TreeMig is furthermore parallellized by simulating stripes of the simulation area by different processors which need to communicate only by the seeds which are dispersed through their boundaries. TMscheme png png, 46 KB. Gerzensee WLeg png png, 74 KB. Dynamic macroecology. Land Change Science.

Simulations for the Holocene in the Valais region show a vivid dynamics of species composition, determined by succession and migration, which are triggered by immigration events and climate Lischke, , ; Lischke et al. In contrast, TreeMig simulations indicate that the afforestation associated with a change in albedo and surface roughness after a drastic temperature rice during the late-glacial is mostly driven by climate and positive feedbacks via nutrient dynamics and albedo for most species, initiating a successional pattern, which is later affected by the lagged immigration of Pinus Lischke et al.

TreeMig has also been applied to simulate climate change driven forest composition in the US Minnesota and to interprete the spread of Quercus ilex in Western France during the last century Delzon et al. Current applications comprise ensemble simulations of climate change and disturbances effects in the alpine valley of Davos and in North-Eastern China, both in comparison with other forest landscape models. We ran first Swiss-wide simulations with a 1km resolution , driven by a single realization of a climate change scenario A1b , and not taking into account land use.

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The simulations showed a gradual decrease of biomass in the lower altitudes until , followed by a drastic breakdown around and a slow part-recovery thereafter Zappa, ; Schattan, The code of TreeMig can be requested from Heike Lischke. Main menu. Rationale Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics, including plant species migration, plays an important role for range dynamics, carbon sequestration, climate-biosphere-feedbacks and biodiversity in the context of climate change.

TreeMig approach Detailed model description We developed the TreeMig model, a spatially explicit and linked forest landscape model originally based on a forest gap model Lischke et al. Project details Project duration - Project lead Dr. Heike Lischke.

Dynamic macroecology Land Change Science. Project staff. Niklaus Zimmermann. Delzon, S. Plos One, 8, e Goetz, S. Lischke, H. Modeling tree species migration in the Alps during the Holocene: What creates complexity? Instructions for Reviewers. Current Issue. List of Reviewers Spatio-temporal risk assessment models for Lobesia botrana in uncolonized winegrowing areas. The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina, Mendoza.

To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2 was used to generate statistics on L. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. Subsequent climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological model.

Valleys of the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered.

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The combination of two models for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species. Aalto J. Spatial interpolation of monthly climate data for Finland, comparing the performance of kriging and generalized additive models.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology 1—2 : 99— Ali M. A new novel index for evaluating model performance. Journal of Natural Resources and Development 4: 1—9. Al Kandari N. Variable selection and interpretation of covariance principal components. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation 30 2 : — Amo-Salas M. Crop Protection 30 12 : — Andreadis S. Cold hardiness of diapausing and non-diapausing pupae of the European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana Entomologia.

Experimentalis et Applicata 2 : — Arribes Castile and Leon, Spain ]. Damos P. Temperaturedriven models for insect development and vital thermal requirements.

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Psyche: A Journal of Entomology :1— Di Rienzo J. Dos Santos M. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation 36 1 : — Elith J. Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models.

TreeMig: modelling spatio-temporal forest dynamics from stand to continental scale

Ecography 32 1 : 66— Fauvel M. Advances in spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images. Proceedings of the IEEE 3 : — Gallardo A.

Phenological mismatch between season advancement and migration timing alters Arctic plant traits

Journal of Applied Entomology 8 : — Gilioli G. Metapopulation modeling and area-wide pest management strategies evaluation: an application to the Pine processionary moth. Ecological Modelling 1— A modelling framework for pest population dynamics and management: An application to the grape berry moth.

Ecological Modelling — Lobesia botrana, grape moth Lobesia botrana, polilla de la uva.